Does anyone also feel that ‘grand-childlessness’ is an under talked aspect of the birth rate problem? I know an elderly woman who’s a little heartbroken that her kids (all in their late 40s) never had children and that she never got to be a grandmother.
I have only just started to see it discussed. I know it was awful for my mom when it looked like we wouldn’t have kids (I married very late and had my first at 39; my brother had his only child at 45 after 15 years of he and his wife struggling with infertility).
It’s not a primary problem but certainly a sad secondary effect. Of course these people are totally delusional as they told their kids to fornicate, not date seriously, murder their babies, be a girl boss, or be a “male ally” so I don’t know what they would be surprised their children don’t have kids. Compare that to boomers parents who would shame them for such behavior
For the last 300 years humanity has effectively been doing a million meter sprint in terms of technologically innovating without ever taking a breath. An individual human needs to take a breath after a long sprint so why wouldn’t human civilisation as a whole?
In some ways I think the fertility crisis is gonna be that breath that humanity takes since it’ll hamper technological advancement for quite a while. We’ve been ‘progress-maxing’ for about 300 years will little time to adapt to changes.
In some ways I think technology innovating too fast like it is now is actually anti-natalist in the sense that it causes too much of a generation gap in the utility of life wisdom. Right now, Gen X parents have nothing to say to their Gen Z kids in terms of advice regarding navigating the new digital world because it came to be so fast, leaving Gen X’s life experiences and life advice useless and redundant to tell to their kids outside of basics.
I think there’s an optimal rate of technological change that is pro-natalist but that’s not what we have now. Our rate of technological progress is too fast and as a result it makes people become too obsolete too quickly and far harder for different generations to connect to each other, leading to lots of inter generational resentment. I don’t think it’s a surprise millennials/Gen Z have such contempt for baby boomers when they effectively grew up in two different universes and Boomer life advice is completely obsolete to them which from the perspective of millennial kids make their boomer parents seem insensitive and for boomer parents it makes them think their millennial kids are ungrateful. And both are kind of right about each other in a way. It’s impossible for the boomers to NOT come off as insensitive when they’ll never understand growing up with the internet and its impossible for millennials to not come off as ungrateful when they can’t accept that their boomer parents genuinely don’t know what they’re doing wrong because well…they’re boomers.
As a Gen Z young man, I actually feel the inter generational resentment younger generations of the future will have for us will be far greater than the generational resentment we have against boomers due to the fertility crisis and this will put us in a bad spot since it’ll be happening as we grow old. Ironically we could end up being seen exactly like the boomers. The whole ‘zoomer’ synonym makes a lot more sense now.
In the past childless people had connections to younger generations through their sibling’s children in the form of their nephews and nieces. But in the 21st century if you have a family of three kids and all become childless, first that bloodline is ended but second, they’ll have no connection to the next generations of kids.
Anyway, happy to see in you post more frequently Louise again. Will we go back to 2 podcast episodes per week again soon?
Amazing, particularly as I’m imagining Louise drafting this with a newborn screaming on and off in the background. Well done. Per the piece, welfare states are a Ponzi scheme and to build on that, they are Ponzi schemes that subsidize old people. If I learned one thing in economics it’s that if you subsidize something, you get more of it. To Louise’s point on the state likely being more open to cutting off public education than pensions, I think that is right but the state is too gutless to overtly cut anything. More likely they’ll destroy the value of the currency thus nominally keeping “promises” but net result will be pensions paid in an increasingly worthless currency and a lot of impoverished childless elderly with no options.
With that said, I’d like to invite our Protestant brothers and sisters back into the Catholic Church. You had a great run, rightly called out indulgences, and ushered in the modern world, but this is no longer sustainable and you need to come back. Catholicism has the infrastructure and longevity we’re going to need this century and, unless you want to embrace Sharia or return to 18th century living with the Amish, might be your best bet
I am so glad that I chose to have children and be present with them and take time away from work to bring them up it has been an amazing experience, hard work with 4 but me and my partner are solid, I think women get out off because it doesn’t sound as exciting as some career but believe me, you won’t remember the hours in the office but you can remember everything about your kids , so let’s start making love more often.
I’m sorry to say, but I think it’s overly optimistic to imagine that people with just peacefully adapt to a lower quality of life in the way you have described. I would predict increasing levels of lawlessness, violence and rioting from the a Godless and impoverished youth. The increasing wealth gap will continue until the point of kind of neo-feudalism, and technological advancements will continue amongst the hyper wealthy at the expense of infrastructural maintenance for the poor. The young, gifted and wealthy will eventually separate themselves from the aged and the poor. They will not accept their comfort being compromised for long. We already see this movement in the “brain-drain” to wealthier countries. Young, gifted people are comfortable leaving ageing relatives behind in search for a better standard of life for themselves. Somewhat understandable as older generations appear happy to sacrifice their young to satisfy their own comforts, as you’ve described. Rather than sacrificing the aged, the poor or the young and the gifted, one should sacrifice oneself. The young and gifted should sacrifice themselves for the aged and the poor. Likewise, the aged and the poor should sacrifice their desires in service of the young and the gifted. But we’re a while away from such a philosophy on life.
The task now is to examine all the technological innovations of the last few hundred years, and determine which ones are most important, which can be kept, and which are economically viable. The ‘we just need to cut the fat of modernity argument’ isn’t entirely wrong, its just not enough people realise just how much fat this is...
I asked my grandmother who was born in 1920 and died in 2017 what she thought the greatest/best/most significant invention was throughout her lifetime? Her answer: the telephone. And mind you, not the cell phone or smartphone. Just simply the telephone.
A pragmatic government, in the Machiavellian way, would exempt pensioners from wearing seat belts, and would subsidise their purchases of booze, tobacco, soft drinks, and salty fatty foods. But charge them extra for vision, hearing, and mobility aids, and other health care.
Disclosure: I am 64 years old, about to become a pensioner. Louise writes, much more eloquently than I possibly could, exactly what I have been thinking these last two decades.
Your essay confirms the demographic, immigration and climate change trends which are also happening in New Zealand where the birthrate is 1.52, immigration rates are high, and the current (coalition – right wing) government is backing oil and gas again.
No doubt you are aware that some commentators think the destruction of modernity could be a good thing. This new spend economic model is the reason for the rich western decline. However I quite like the ability to walk to my local supermarkets and talk with the locals from community and my diverse Catholic parish.
On the weekends I visit my children and grandchildren and in the afternoon I watch my favourite podcasts (legacy media in decline here to) and reflect on the passing world as I am well into my seventies.
Why am I reflective, and have time to be reflective. When I was young I grew up in a dysfunctional family, solo mother and in my twenties strove to make a family that was better than what I had. I value so much that experience. And now I am old (and wear the bottom of my trousers rolled) I pray for grandchildren for what is to come.
But you know that people are in denial. I learnt that when I worked in the newsmedia and in television and church media. We do not prefer the bad news as it steals hope. So we can listen to each other instead as Louis McNeice opined.
The changes you describe as inevitable -- societies becoming low-tech (with likely shorter lifespans) -- these likely changes will not be for the most part attributable to low birth rates preventing creativity and dynamism. Rather there are ecological limits that will impact the extent of our technology use. Modern existence is dependent on easily accessible fossil fuels. There are no realistic "renewable" energy solutions. Nuclear is no solution either.
Yes, we will indeed have to go back to living like the Amish. I don't think we will ever go back to a time, pre-printing press, however. So hopefully there will not be a loss of humane ideas and their spread.
Does anyone also feel that ‘grand-childlessness’ is an under talked aspect of the birth rate problem? I know an elderly woman who’s a little heartbroken that her kids (all in their late 40s) never had children and that she never got to be a grandmother.
I have only just started to see it discussed. I know it was awful for my mom when it looked like we wouldn’t have kids (I married very late and had my first at 39; my brother had his only child at 45 after 15 years of he and his wife struggling with infertility).
My three adult grandchildren show no signs of wanting to have kids. So even having grandkids is no guarantee.
It’s not a primary problem but certainly a sad secondary effect. Of course these people are totally delusional as they told their kids to fornicate, not date seriously, murder their babies, be a girl boss, or be a “male ally” so I don’t know what they would be surprised their children don’t have kids. Compare that to boomers parents who would shame them for such behavior
For the last 300 years humanity has effectively been doing a million meter sprint in terms of technologically innovating without ever taking a breath. An individual human needs to take a breath after a long sprint so why wouldn’t human civilisation as a whole?
In some ways I think the fertility crisis is gonna be that breath that humanity takes since it’ll hamper technological advancement for quite a while. We’ve been ‘progress-maxing’ for about 300 years will little time to adapt to changes.
In some ways I think technology innovating too fast like it is now is actually anti-natalist in the sense that it causes too much of a generation gap in the utility of life wisdom. Right now, Gen X parents have nothing to say to their Gen Z kids in terms of advice regarding navigating the new digital world because it came to be so fast, leaving Gen X’s life experiences and life advice useless and redundant to tell to their kids outside of basics.
I think there’s an optimal rate of technological change that is pro-natalist but that’s not what we have now. Our rate of technological progress is too fast and as a result it makes people become too obsolete too quickly and far harder for different generations to connect to each other, leading to lots of inter generational resentment. I don’t think it’s a surprise millennials/Gen Z have such contempt for baby boomers when they effectively grew up in two different universes and Boomer life advice is completely obsolete to them which from the perspective of millennial kids make their boomer parents seem insensitive and for boomer parents it makes them think their millennial kids are ungrateful. And both are kind of right about each other in a way. It’s impossible for the boomers to NOT come off as insensitive when they’ll never understand growing up with the internet and its impossible for millennials to not come off as ungrateful when they can’t accept that their boomer parents genuinely don’t know what they’re doing wrong because well…they’re boomers.
As a Gen Z young man, I actually feel the inter generational resentment younger generations of the future will have for us will be far greater than the generational resentment we have against boomers due to the fertility crisis and this will put us in a bad spot since it’ll be happening as we grow old. Ironically we could end up being seen exactly like the boomers. The whole ‘zoomer’ synonym makes a lot more sense now.
In the past childless people had connections to younger generations through their sibling’s children in the form of their nephews and nieces. But in the 21st century if you have a family of three kids and all become childless, first that bloodline is ended but second, they’ll have no connection to the next generations of kids.
Anyway, happy to see in you post more frequently Louise again. Will we go back to 2 podcast episodes per week again soon?
Wow - All of this.
Amazing, particularly as I’m imagining Louise drafting this with a newborn screaming on and off in the background. Well done. Per the piece, welfare states are a Ponzi scheme and to build on that, they are Ponzi schemes that subsidize old people. If I learned one thing in economics it’s that if you subsidize something, you get more of it. To Louise’s point on the state likely being more open to cutting off public education than pensions, I think that is right but the state is too gutless to overtly cut anything. More likely they’ll destroy the value of the currency thus nominally keeping “promises” but net result will be pensions paid in an increasingly worthless currency and a lot of impoverished childless elderly with no options.
With that said, I’d like to invite our Protestant brothers and sisters back into the Catholic Church. You had a great run, rightly called out indulgences, and ushered in the modern world, but this is no longer sustainable and you need to come back. Catholicism has the infrastructure and longevity we’re going to need this century and, unless you want to embrace Sharia or return to 18th century living with the Amish, might be your best bet
Nice use of the word autochthonous. Had to Google that one.
I am so glad that I chose to have children and be present with them and take time away from work to bring them up it has been an amazing experience, hard work with 4 but me and my partner are solid, I think women get out off because it doesn’t sound as exciting as some career but believe me, you won’t remember the hours in the office but you can remember everything about your kids , so let’s start making love more often.
This is a superb -and supremely disturbing- essay. Thank you.
I’m sorry to say, but I think it’s overly optimistic to imagine that people with just peacefully adapt to a lower quality of life in the way you have described. I would predict increasing levels of lawlessness, violence and rioting from the a Godless and impoverished youth. The increasing wealth gap will continue until the point of kind of neo-feudalism, and technological advancements will continue amongst the hyper wealthy at the expense of infrastructural maintenance for the poor. The young, gifted and wealthy will eventually separate themselves from the aged and the poor. They will not accept their comfort being compromised for long. We already see this movement in the “brain-drain” to wealthier countries. Young, gifted people are comfortable leaving ageing relatives behind in search for a better standard of life for themselves. Somewhat understandable as older generations appear happy to sacrifice their young to satisfy their own comforts, as you’ve described. Rather than sacrificing the aged, the poor or the young and the gifted, one should sacrifice oneself. The young and gifted should sacrifice themselves for the aged and the poor. Likewise, the aged and the poor should sacrifice their desires in service of the young and the gifted. But we’re a while away from such a philosophy on life.
The task now is to examine all the technological innovations of the last few hundred years, and determine which ones are most important, which can be kept, and which are economically viable. The ‘we just need to cut the fat of modernity argument’ isn’t entirely wrong, its just not enough people realise just how much fat this is...
I asked my grandmother who was born in 1920 and died in 2017 what she thought the greatest/best/most significant invention was throughout her lifetime? Her answer: the telephone. And mind you, not the cell phone or smartphone. Just simply the telephone.
A pragmatic government, in the Machiavellian way, would exempt pensioners from wearing seat belts, and would subsidise their purchases of booze, tobacco, soft drinks, and salty fatty foods. But charge them extra for vision, hearing, and mobility aids, and other health care.
Disclosure: I am 64 years old, about to become a pensioner. Louise writes, much more eloquently than I possibly could, exactly what I have been thinking these last two decades.
Louise goes a little "black pill" on us here.... oh dear... I hope it's not postpartum depression...
All true Louise but life finds a way and as my father once told me "it's not whether or not you will survive it is simply how well"...
Hi From New Zealand
Your essay confirms the demographic, immigration and climate change trends which are also happening in New Zealand where the birthrate is 1.52, immigration rates are high, and the current (coalition – right wing) government is backing oil and gas again.
No doubt you are aware that some commentators think the destruction of modernity could be a good thing. This new spend economic model is the reason for the rich western decline. However I quite like the ability to walk to my local supermarkets and talk with the locals from community and my diverse Catholic parish.
On the weekends I visit my children and grandchildren and in the afternoon I watch my favourite podcasts (legacy media in decline here to) and reflect on the passing world as I am well into my seventies.
Why am I reflective, and have time to be reflective. When I was young I grew up in a dysfunctional family, solo mother and in my twenties strove to make a family that was better than what I had. I value so much that experience. And now I am old (and wear the bottom of my trousers rolled) I pray for grandchildren for what is to come.
But you know that people are in denial. I learnt that when I worked in the newsmedia and in television and church media. We do not prefer the bad news as it steals hope. So we can listen to each other instead as Louis McNeice opined.
“.. not expecting pardon,
Hardened in heart anew,
But glad to have sat under
Thunder and rain with you,
And grateful too
For sunlight on the garden.”
Interesting if conclusively grim.
Wow Louise that was amazing, congrats on the new baby.
The changes you describe as inevitable -- societies becoming low-tech (with likely shorter lifespans) -- these likely changes will not be for the most part attributable to low birth rates preventing creativity and dynamism. Rather there are ecological limits that will impact the extent of our technology use. Modern existence is dependent on easily accessible fossil fuels. There are no realistic "renewable" energy solutions. Nuclear is no solution either.
Yes, we will indeed have to go back to living like the Amish. I don't think we will ever go back to a time, pre-printing press, however. So hopefully there will not be a loss of humane ideas and their spread.
One of the most insightful essays I’ve ever read.
Coincidentally, I published something very similar today….https://gardenearth.substack.com/p/is-modernity-killing-itself