My guest today is David Betz, Professor of War in the Modern World at King's College London, and specialist in the study of insurgency and counterinsurgency, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and propaganda.
Passed through Heathrow early this month. I usually find the Yookay multicultural and gender diverse posters risible and naff, but this time I felt I was looking at propaganda from a regime that has no legitimacy and that hates me. Worst of all was the picture of a clearly Arab Muslim man in full floor length robes and turban that bore the caption 'Faces of Britain'. I'm a professional middle class man, a Christian, married to someone from another country who wouldn't be characterised as 'White British'. I have two daughters in their tweens and I love my country and want it to have a great future - but the rage that regularly arises in me when I see all this shit makes me either want to burn it all down and start again or flee somewhere else. The water has finally got too hot for this frog not to notice.
I was in the UK recently and saw the "Faces of Britain" in passing... one was literally a woman in a niqab. Couldn't even see her actual face 🤣 I really thought, wow, you can't make this sh*t up. I laugh but I don't even find it funny, it feels like a large-scale, extremely cruel trolling of the population. I think this kind of stuff is going to radicalize more and more "normal" people.
You sound like my husband. We are also a couple, he's white English and I'm of dual heritage. White German mother and Black 1st generation father. My parents met whilst my father was serving in the Army and was stationed over there. We live in Birmingham which I would describe as one of those cities Matt discusses in this podcast, I can't remember the exact term. The instability is clear here. Our Council is effectively bankrupt, there are sections of the city that are self governed, which I would argue are now no go zones and there is no shared idea or culture. Needless to say, we are planning to move within the next 18 months.
My husband loves his Country and is clearly not a racist but when he sees the day to day bastardisation of Britain, he is enraged. He feels not listened to and refuses to have our 2 daughters grow up in a city where our Local MP Tahir Ali is asking for blasphemy laws. It's a appalling and based on the information in this podcast it won't be a surprise when the silent majority will feel it necessary to take things into their own hands.
You know that trope in zombie apocalypse movies and shows where the protagonist moves through their daily routine and in the background there are odd little signs and portents of what is to come? I’ve started having that feeling more and more frequently - shoplifters in Surbiton Waitrose, tents by the Thames bridge at Kingston, singular for now, men in full Islamic dress in molesey or Esher. Maybe my paranoias are getting out of hand.
But in the last five years things have been weird haven’t they?
The white stag running through Merseyside streets and killed by the police. The king’s riderless cavalry horses running bloodied towards the city of London and now a black bull, looking like it stepped out of las Ventas running through Birmingham fleeing from having its throat slit for Eid Al-Anda. Jungian synchronicity or warnings from God?
Until recently I just cynically gave it the side eye y’know. But since Southport and the resurfacing of the grooming gang stories.. man it feels like I’m being goaded. I don’t want to leave this land - my ancestors fought and died for it. I’m Lancastrian (north of the sands) but I’ve got Manx, Welsh and Scots ancestry as well as Cumberland and Westmoreland. I don’t want to leave, why should I? I’m living in Surrey and there is a different sense of Englishness here, but it’s still a land that somehow calls to me as home.
That psychological insight that it’s much easier to make people attack things rather than people was amazing to hear. And disturbing, since attacking things like infrastructure can harm more people indirectly than attacking people directly.
Honestly, I think this is the best podcast Louise has ever recorded on this show, I don’t know think I’ve ever learnt so much new knowledge from a single episode, military intelligence and strategy is fascinating to learn and think about, I’m thankful David could introduce it to a lot of us, albeit in a darker context of conversation.
Thanks Louise. Fascinating & disturbing conversation. I have all sorts of follow-up questions for David. Any chance of us followers submitting questions & then you get him back to address them? E.g.
- Are large political changes impossible... or just too late now? With the re-election of Trump, it (so far) looks like a sea-change in the political environment in the U.S. And here in Europe the AfD is starting to seriously influence politics in Germany. Is it not possible that there could be a large political shift here in the UK within the next few years which could bring about very different policies & defuse much of the frustration? Or have we really gone too far already?
- What about inter-ethnic conflict? David talks about the majority white population's anger at the political elites/the state, and that that anger would initially be expressed through e.g. attacks on state infrastructure. He also sees it taking the form of country vs city. But what about *inter-ethnic* conflict, which seems equally plausible to me? Or if that's just a later stage of a series of escalating steps, how does he see the steps playing out?
- Aren't we too old for this? Early on you brought up the age profile of the UK, along with the common view that civil wars can't happen in a country where so many people are old. David said that was mere conventional wisdom & not true. But he didn't really elaborate. Is the age profile of a country completely irrelevant to civil war? And how would the age profile of the UK affect the way any conflict would play out?
- 'Downgrading' was a key idea i.e. the majority population feeling that it's losing its position & feeling defensive & angry about that. In other words, the main impetus for conflict comes from *the majority*. Since recent terrorism, attacks & large-scale protests (e.g. pro-Palestine) have been almost entirely Muslim, I've always thought that if things really started to break down it would be Muslims kicking things off & harassing non-Muslims on a much larger scale. Of course one doesn't preclude the other. But how does David see this playing out?
Anyhow, just thought I'd put these questions out there. Thanks for the very good conversation.
Yes, I kept waiting for the explicit discussion of this aspect, and it never really came. From what I saw on social media, the Southport riots involved groups of Muslims vs. groups of white people. This seems like it would be a big part of any future civil war in the UK.
It is the only reasonable pattern for any civil war. I expect the Sikhs and Hindhus would fight with the native Brits but how many of the native Brits (and moderate Moslems) would join in with the 'peace loving tolerant' Islamists
Hi Toby, I can’t answer as well as David obviously, but with respect to age, I’d point you to Donbas in Eastern Ukraine. Despite demographic decline for some decades it seems they still had enough young people to start shooting at each other.
I’ve been listening on and off to this podcast for a few months. This was a fascinating interview. It convinced me to become a paid subscriber. America vice-president Vance recently expressed concerned about a future Islamic takeover of Britain, with Islamists gaining control of Britain’s nuclear weapons. At the time, I dismissed it as just another crazy comment from MAGA world. But this podcast makes me wonder if it isn’t as preposterous as it seems. If Britain did plunge into civil unrest that spiraled out of control, another very real possibility to consider is American military intervention in Britain. After all, the prospect of a major European ally with nuclear weapons such as Britain or France falling into civil war would be a direct threat to American national security.
Yes, and that is frightening! However, Pakistan probably doesn’t have the same launch capabilities as Britain. Moreover, Pakistan is of no economic or cultural significance to the United States. Britain and France for that matter are quite important.
I don't want a civil war, of course, but I do feel one is almost inevitable. And as it is then surely better to have it sooner when the native Brits are still the majority. If we wait till our Uniparty Governments have finished inviting in huge numbers of immigrants then we will likely be unable to mount any defence and will just acquiesce to wearing burkas, worshipping Allah etc.
Years ago I laughed at a friend who warned me about this (when Brits must have still been 90%+ of the population). I am definitely not laughing now!
The comment that stands out above all the alarmist speculation is that the British State has lost legitimacy. For all our lives and generations before we have taken for granted that a social contract whereby we obey laws and pay taxes and in return the State will protect us and our children and our property and provide a safety net against ill health and misfortune. What happens when the State doesn’t meet its side of the bargain?
For example, one big blind spot which I try to point out to leftists I speak to, is that if the re-emergence of “fascism” is your biggest concern, then surely the Dems in the US are the bigger risk, with their affinity for the Maidan Revolution and Ukraine War, tech censorship and the “intelligence community”?
Sure we are all aware of this but just in case..... We can be fairly sure that our Elites are reading these comments and marking out the 'troublemakers'.
Sounds grim and not something that is known in New Zealand with its small population. There is enough living space for everyone here. It’s true that wealthy individuals and entities have indeed acquired significant amounts of land in New Zealand. But plenty still left. And the Government has created two new ‘active’ investor visas. Five million minimum over three years and ten million over ten years. The money must be invested directly into NZ businesses. Residency is thrown in. Might be attractive for cashed up wealthy professionals.
This was very interesting. Even if I only got halfway through on my commute this morning. However, I would have liked Mr Betz’ opinion on what Americans call “the Deep State” but the fictional Sir Humphrey Appleby would prefer to call “her Majesty’s Civil Service”. In particular, the fact that both the British and American state apparatus have significant experience in fomenting “colour revolutions” in various parts of the world.
In this world of increasing politicisation of institutions, is there not some risk of these “chickens coming home to roost”?
On the timescale of the civil war Prof. Betz is expecting, I note this:
"I would ask Barbara Walter rather than me for reasons that I just mentioned. But in her book on the matter, she concludes, if I recall correctly, that in the countries where the conditions necessary for the outbreak of civil war are present, the actual likelihood of it breaking out in any given year is about 4%." (from the transcript)
This puts the chance that there won't be an outbreak of civil war over the next 5 years at about 81.5% (raising 0.96 to the power of 5 and converting it to a percentage). A near 1 in 5 chance of it happening within the next 5 years is a bit unnerving.
I really hope Betz is wrong. It'd be interesting to find out if there are other experts in warfare who've looked at this question regarding the UK and the West and would challenge Betz's conclusions here.
My dad has predicted for years a possiblity that Europeans may start forming enclaves within their countries, handing some of the land over, and apartheid being reinvented. The importance of holding immigrants accountable to respecting the host culture is far more important and interesting than limiting the number of immigrants. As an American I fear the native grown individuals who believe our culture is gravely flawed and inferior much more than I fear the governments
Having a justice and immigration system that actually worked and held the Islamic new comers to account would be helpful in defusing a great deal of tension..Not punishing your farmers so they have to drive into London on their tractors to get someone to listen to their concerns might be helpful.The elites and the politicians better get with it or they will have much more to worry about when their house are in a war Zone or they can’t get food for their families.The “party”is about to come to a close.Get a hold of yourselves and figure out what you value and find others that think the similarly…and move further out from the cities.Just some thoughts from an American.
After many recent case of lunatic asylum decisions and administration of two tier justice I can foresee a campaign against judges and lawyers spiralling out of control and being the catalyst for unrest.
Passed through Heathrow early this month. I usually find the Yookay multicultural and gender diverse posters risible and naff, but this time I felt I was looking at propaganda from a regime that has no legitimacy and that hates me. Worst of all was the picture of a clearly Arab Muslim man in full floor length robes and turban that bore the caption 'Faces of Britain'. I'm a professional middle class man, a Christian, married to someone from another country who wouldn't be characterised as 'White British'. I have two daughters in their tweens and I love my country and want it to have a great future - but the rage that regularly arises in me when I see all this shit makes me either want to burn it all down and start again or flee somewhere else. The water has finally got too hot for this frog not to notice.
I was in the UK recently and saw the "Faces of Britain" in passing... one was literally a woman in a niqab. Couldn't even see her actual face 🤣 I really thought, wow, you can't make this sh*t up. I laugh but I don't even find it funny, it feels like a large-scale, extremely cruel trolling of the population. I think this kind of stuff is going to radicalize more and more "normal" people.
You sound like my husband. We are also a couple, he's white English and I'm of dual heritage. White German mother and Black 1st generation father. My parents met whilst my father was serving in the Army and was stationed over there. We live in Birmingham which I would describe as one of those cities Matt discusses in this podcast, I can't remember the exact term. The instability is clear here. Our Council is effectively bankrupt, there are sections of the city that are self governed, which I would argue are now no go zones and there is no shared idea or culture. Needless to say, we are planning to move within the next 18 months.
My husband loves his Country and is clearly not a racist but when he sees the day to day bastardisation of Britain, he is enraged. He feels not listened to and refuses to have our 2 daughters grow up in a city where our Local MP Tahir Ali is asking for blasphemy laws. It's a appalling and based on the information in this podcast it won't be a surprise when the silent majority will feel it necessary to take things into their own hands.
You know that trope in zombie apocalypse movies and shows where the protagonist moves through their daily routine and in the background there are odd little signs and portents of what is to come? I’ve started having that feeling more and more frequently - shoplifters in Surbiton Waitrose, tents by the Thames bridge at Kingston, singular for now, men in full Islamic dress in molesey or Esher. Maybe my paranoias are getting out of hand.
But in the last five years things have been weird haven’t they?
The white stag running through Merseyside streets and killed by the police. The king’s riderless cavalry horses running bloodied towards the city of London and now a black bull, looking like it stepped out of las Ventas running through Birmingham fleeing from having its throat slit for Eid Al-Anda. Jungian synchronicity or warnings from God?
Until recently I just cynically gave it the side eye y’know. But since Southport and the resurfacing of the grooming gang stories.. man it feels like I’m being goaded. I don’t want to leave this land - my ancestors fought and died for it. I’m Lancastrian (north of the sands) but I’ve got Manx, Welsh and Scots ancestry as well as Cumberland and Westmoreland. I don’t want to leave, why should I? I’m living in Surrey and there is a different sense of Englishness here, but it’s still a land that somehow calls to me as home.
That psychological insight that it’s much easier to make people attack things rather than people was amazing to hear. And disturbing, since attacking things like infrastructure can harm more people indirectly than attacking people directly.
Honestly, I think this is the best podcast Louise has ever recorded on this show, I don’t know think I’ve ever learnt so much new knowledge from a single episode, military intelligence and strategy is fascinating to learn and think about, I’m thankful David could introduce it to a lot of us, albeit in a darker context of conversation.
Thanks Louise. Fascinating & disturbing conversation. I have all sorts of follow-up questions for David. Any chance of us followers submitting questions & then you get him back to address them? E.g.
- Are large political changes impossible... or just too late now? With the re-election of Trump, it (so far) looks like a sea-change in the political environment in the U.S. And here in Europe the AfD is starting to seriously influence politics in Germany. Is it not possible that there could be a large political shift here in the UK within the next few years which could bring about very different policies & defuse much of the frustration? Or have we really gone too far already?
- What about inter-ethnic conflict? David talks about the majority white population's anger at the political elites/the state, and that that anger would initially be expressed through e.g. attacks on state infrastructure. He also sees it taking the form of country vs city. But what about *inter-ethnic* conflict, which seems equally plausible to me? Or if that's just a later stage of a series of escalating steps, how does he see the steps playing out?
- Aren't we too old for this? Early on you brought up the age profile of the UK, along with the common view that civil wars can't happen in a country where so many people are old. David said that was mere conventional wisdom & not true. But he didn't really elaborate. Is the age profile of a country completely irrelevant to civil war? And how would the age profile of the UK affect the way any conflict would play out?
- 'Downgrading' was a key idea i.e. the majority population feeling that it's losing its position & feeling defensive & angry about that. In other words, the main impetus for conflict comes from *the majority*. Since recent terrorism, attacks & large-scale protests (e.g. pro-Palestine) have been almost entirely Muslim, I've always thought that if things really started to break down it would be Muslims kicking things off & harassing non-Muslims on a much larger scale. Of course one doesn't preclude the other. But how does David see this playing out?
Anyhow, just thought I'd put these questions out there. Thanks for the very good conversation.
Thanks Toby, yes I had been thinking of doing a follow-up with David responding to listeners’ questions, I’ll ask him
> inter-ethnic conflict
Yes, I kept waiting for the explicit discussion of this aspect, and it never really came. From what I saw on social media, the Southport riots involved groups of Muslims vs. groups of white people. This seems like it would be a big part of any future civil war in the UK.
It is the only reasonable pattern for any civil war. I expect the Sikhs and Hindhus would fight with the native Brits but how many of the native Brits (and moderate Moslems) would join in with the 'peace loving tolerant' Islamists
Hi Toby, I can’t answer as well as David obviously, but with respect to age, I’d point you to Donbas in Eastern Ukraine. Despite demographic decline for some decades it seems they still had enough young people to start shooting at each other.
I’ve been listening on and off to this podcast for a few months. This was a fascinating interview. It convinced me to become a paid subscriber. America vice-president Vance recently expressed concerned about a future Islamic takeover of Britain, with Islamists gaining control of Britain’s nuclear weapons. At the time, I dismissed it as just another crazy comment from MAGA world. But this podcast makes me wonder if it isn’t as preposterous as it seems. If Britain did plunge into civil unrest that spiraled out of control, another very real possibility to consider is American military intervention in Britain. After all, the prospect of a major European ally with nuclear weapons such as Britain or France falling into civil war would be a direct threat to American national security.
Can but hope.
There already is an Islamic country that has them,Pakistan
Yes, and that is frightening! However, Pakistan probably doesn’t have the same launch capabilities as Britain. Moreover, Pakistan is of no economic or cultural significance to the United States. Britain and France for that matter are quite important.
I don't want a civil war, of course, but I do feel one is almost inevitable. And as it is then surely better to have it sooner when the native Brits are still the majority. If we wait till our Uniparty Governments have finished inviting in huge numbers of immigrants then we will likely be unable to mount any defence and will just acquiesce to wearing burkas, worshipping Allah etc.
Years ago I laughed at a friend who warned me about this (when Brits must have still been 90%+ of the population). I am definitely not laughing now!
The comment that stands out above all the alarmist speculation is that the British State has lost legitimacy. For all our lives and generations before we have taken for granted that a social contract whereby we obey laws and pay taxes and in return the State will protect us and our children and our property and provide a safety net against ill health and misfortune. What happens when the State doesn’t meet its side of the bargain?
For example, one big blind spot which I try to point out to leftists I speak to, is that if the re-emergence of “fascism” is your biggest concern, then surely the Dems in the US are the bigger risk, with their affinity for the Maidan Revolution and Ukraine War, tech censorship and the “intelligence community”?
Sure we are all aware of this but just in case..... We can be fairly sure that our Elites are reading these comments and marking out the 'troublemakers'.
Interesting but didn’t convince me in the slightest.
It reminded me of listening to Al Gore speaking about “An Inconvenient Truth” all those years ago.
Experts can always extrapolate to predict an alarmist future.
Sounds grim and not something that is known in New Zealand with its small population. There is enough living space for everyone here. It’s true that wealthy individuals and entities have indeed acquired significant amounts of land in New Zealand. But plenty still left. And the Government has created two new ‘active’ investor visas. Five million minimum over three years and ten million over ten years. The money must be invested directly into NZ businesses. Residency is thrown in. Might be attractive for cashed up wealthy professionals.
Fellow Kiwi here. We’ve got our issues to be sure, but we’re also a long way from civil war like conditions
Just remember it always goes "slowly at first and then all at once".
Five million new immigrants over 3 years looks very imminent to me. So don't leave it as late as the UK has.
This was very interesting. Even if I only got halfway through on my commute this morning. However, I would have liked Mr Betz’ opinion on what Americans call “the Deep State” but the fictional Sir Humphrey Appleby would prefer to call “her Majesty’s Civil Service”. In particular, the fact that both the British and American state apparatus have significant experience in fomenting “colour revolutions” in various parts of the world.
In this world of increasing politicisation of institutions, is there not some risk of these “chickens coming home to roost”?
Stay safe
On the timescale of the civil war Prof. Betz is expecting, I note this:
"I would ask Barbara Walter rather than me for reasons that I just mentioned. But in her book on the matter, she concludes, if I recall correctly, that in the countries where the conditions necessary for the outbreak of civil war are present, the actual likelihood of it breaking out in any given year is about 4%." (from the transcript)
This puts the chance that there won't be an outbreak of civil war over the next 5 years at about 81.5% (raising 0.96 to the power of 5 and converting it to a percentage). A near 1 in 5 chance of it happening within the next 5 years is a bit unnerving.
I really hope Betz is wrong. It'd be interesting to find out if there are other experts in warfare who've looked at this question regarding the UK and the West and would challenge Betz's conclusions here.
My dad has predicted for years a possiblity that Europeans may start forming enclaves within their countries, handing some of the land over, and apartheid being reinvented. The importance of holding immigrants accountable to respecting the host culture is far more important and interesting than limiting the number of immigrants. As an American I fear the native grown individuals who believe our culture is gravely flawed and inferior much more than I fear the governments
Having a justice and immigration system that actually worked and held the Islamic new comers to account would be helpful in defusing a great deal of tension..Not punishing your farmers so they have to drive into London on their tractors to get someone to listen to their concerns might be helpful.The elites and the politicians better get with it or they will have much more to worry about when their house are in a war Zone or they can’t get food for their families.The “party”is about to come to a close.Get a hold of yourselves and figure out what you value and find others that think the similarly…and move further out from the cities.Just some thoughts from an American.
After many recent case of lunatic asylum decisions and administration of two tier justice I can foresee a campaign against judges and lawyers spiralling out of control and being the catalyst for unrest.
That was fascinating but somehow even more depressing and frightening than I'd feared.